新湖畔网 （随信APP) | 科学家称气候变化加剧了致命的非洲洪灾

Laurie CHURCHMAN

一项周三公布的研究显示，由人类引起的气候变化使喀麦隆、乍得、尼日尔、尼日利亚和苏丹今年发生的洪灾加剧，导致数百人死亡，数百万人流离失所。

强烈的雨季引发了撒哈拉沙漠边界的撒哈拉地区广泛地区的人道主义危机。

世界气象评估（WWA）科学家网络的新分析发现，由化石燃料的使用导致的变暖加剧了苏丹的洪水。

研究人员还表示，气候变化将使尼日尔和乍得湖流域今年的暴雨增大约五到20％，援引了一个关于2022年类似洪水的WWA先前研究。

“如果我们继续燃烧化石燃料，情况只会变得更糟，”伦敦帝国理工学院环境政策中心的克莱尔·巴恩斯说。

在发布研究前的简报会上，她表示，如果全球气温升高到比工业化前水平高出两摄氏度（35.6华氏度），这种暴雨“可能会每年发生一次”。

“这是非常严重的，”她说。

– 暴雨和暴风雨 –

全球变暖不仅仅是关于气温上升 - 大气层和海洋中附加的热量会产生连锁效应，导致更强烈的暴雨和暴风雨。

研究人员表示，极端降雨与地球变暖之间存在明显的联系。

在研究中，他们关注了饱受战乱困扰的苏丹，数百万流离失所的人被驱使进入易受洪水影响的地区。

科学家使用模拟比较了我们的世界和没有人类引起变暖的情况下的天气模式，发现苏丹部分地区一个月长的强降雨期变得更重并更可能是由于气候变化。

他们表示，在目前的1.3摄氏度升温下，他们预计类似的降雨周期平均约每三年发生一次，由于气候变化，降雨变得约重10％。

–‘极其令人担忧’–

“这些结果极其令人担忧，”该研究的作者之一、荷兰皇家气象研究所的研究员伊兹丁·平托表示。

他警告称，“随着每一度温暖，极端洪水的风险将不断增加”，并呼吁联合国第29次气候峰会在下个月阿塞拜疆举行时“加快远离化石燃料的转变”。

伦敦帝国理工学院环境政策中心的研究员乔伊斯·基姆塔伊表示，洪水凸显了对因气候变化遭受破坏的国家设立损失和赔偿基金的必要性。

本月早些时候在第29次气候峰会前召开的一次关键会议以各国在如何为较贫穷国家提供资金达成协议未能取得进展而告终。

“非洲在全球范围内贡献了微不足道的碳排放，但是却受到极端天气的严重影响，”基姆塔伊说。

研究人员表示，气候变化在洪水中起到了加剧的作用，并呼吁更好地维护水坝和投资建立预警系统。

Laurie CHURCHMAN

Human-caused climate change worsened floods that have killed hundreds of people and displaced millions in Cameroon, Chad, Niger, Nigeria and Sudan this year, according to a study published on Wednesday.

The intense rainy season has unleashed a humanitarian crisis across large areas of the Sahel region bordering the Sahara desert.

A new analysis by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) network of scientists found warming driven by the use of fossil fuels had exacerbated the flooding in Sudan.

The researchers also said climate change would have made this year’s torrential rains around five to 20 percent more intense across the Niger and Lake Chad basins, citing a previous WWA study of similar floods in 2022.

“This is only going to keep getting worse if we keep burning fossil fuels,” said Clair Barnes from the Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London.

Speaking at a briefing ahead of the study’s publication, she said such downpours “could happen every year” if global temperatures increase to two degrees Celsius (35.6 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels.

“It’s pretty serious,” she said.

– Downpours and storms –

Global warming is not just about rising temperatures — the extra heat trapped in the atmosphere and seas has knock-on effects and can result in more intense downpours and storms.

The researchers said there was a clear link between the extreme rainfall and a warming planet.

In the study, they focused on war-torn Sudan, where millions of displaced people have been uprooted by conflict and driven into flood-prone areas.

The scientists used modeling to compare weather patterns in our world and one without human-induced warming, and found that month-long spells of intense rainfall in parts of Sudan had become heavier and more likely due to climate change.

At the current 1.3 degrees Celsius of warming, they said similar periods of rainfall are expected to occur on average about once every three years, and have become about 10 percent heavier due to climate change.

– ‘Incredibly concerning’ –

“These results are incredibly concerning,” said Izidine Pinto, one of the study’s authors and a researcher at the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute.

He warned that “with every fraction of a degree of warming, the risk of extreme floods will keep increasing”, and called for the UN’s COP29 climate summit to “accelerate the transition away from fossil fuels” when it meets in Azerbaijan next month.

Joyce Kimutai, a researcher at Imperial’s Centre for Environmental Policy, said the floods underscored the need for a loss and damage fund for nations devastated by climate change.

A key meeting ahead of COP29 earlier this month ended with countries making little progress over how to finance a deal for poorer nations.

“Africa has contributed a tiny amount of carbon emissions globally, but is being hit the hardest by extreme weather,” Kimutai said.

The role of climate change in the floods was compounded by other human-made problems, the researchers said, and they called for better maintenance of dams and investment in early warning systems.