新湖畔网 （随信APP) | 乔治亚的选举是民主和欧盟雄心的关键考验

执政党被指责出现民主倒退，并向莫斯科靠拢 - 版权AFP Giorgi ARJEVANIDZE

Irakli METREVELI

周六，格鲁吉亚人将参加一场具有决定性意义的选举，被广泛视为对该国脆弱民主和欧洲愿景命运的决定性时刻。

议会选举将西方亲欧盟反对派力量与被指责出现民主倒退并向俄罗斯靠拢的执政党对决。

布鲁塞尔已警告称，这次投票将决定欧盟候选国第比利斯加入该组织的机会。

民意调查显示，反对党可能获得足够选票组成一个联合政府，取代由强大亿万富翁比兹纳·伊万尼什维利控制的执政党“格鲁吉亚之梦”。

“格鲁吉亚传统上破碎的反对派力量成功地打造出一个前所未有的统一战线对抗‘格鲁吉亚之梦’，”格鲁吉亚战略分析中心的分析师格拉·瓦萨德泽说道。

“但如果执政党试图无视选举结果继续执政，那么有可能出现选后动荡。”

“格鲁吉亚之梦”表示希望赢得超级多数，以通过禁止所有主要反对党的宪法修正案。

该党自2012年掌权以来，最初秉持自由亲西方的政策议程。但过去两年，该党开始改弦易辙。

其竞选活动集中在一个关于“控制西方机构并试图将格鲁吉亚卷入俄乌战争的全球战争派”阴谋论上。

在仍被2008年俄罗斯入侵所伤的国家，该党向选民提供了有关即将爆发战争威胁的鬼故事，只有“格鲁吉亚之梦”才能阻止。

在最近的电视访谈中，伊万尼什维利描绘了一个西方“在街头进行狂欢”的怪诞形象。

– ‘关键考验’ –

周三，“格鲁吉亚之梦”从全国各地将数万人送往第比利斯参加竞选集会，总理伊拉克里·科巴希泽誓言将格鲁吉亚引向欧盟成员国。

同时，他指责欧盟领导人“不公平、拒绝基督教教义、LGBT宣传”以及“不尊重他人主权”。

上周日，成千上万的格鲁吉亚人在首都举行了一场亲欧盟集会。

“格鲁吉亚之梦”今年春季通过了备受争议的“外国势力”法案，瞄准公民社会，引发了数周的大规模街头抗议，并被批评为克里姆林宫式措施以沉默异议声音。

此举导致布鲁塞尔冻结了格鲁吉亚加入欧盟的进程，同时华盛顿对数十名格鲁吉亚官员实施了制裁。

本月早些时候，欧盟外交政策负责人若瑟普·博雷尔警告称，“格鲁吉亚之梦”的行动“表明了向威权主义转变”的迹象。

他标志着即将到来的选举是“格鲁吉亚民主及其与欧盟关系的关键考验”。

克里姆林宫周五猛烈抨击“西方干涉的前所未有尝试”，指责其“试图扭转第比利斯的手”和“指使条款”。

科巴希泽表示，与西方的关系将在乌克兰战争结束后恢复正常。

– 未决定选民 –

最新民调显示，反对派有望获得足够选票掌权。

潜在的联盟包括格鲁吉亚主要反对派力量、被狱中前总统米哈伊尔·萨卡什维利领导的团结国民运动（UNM）以及最近成立、由前UNM领导人领导的阿卡利党。

他们与几个较小的政党一起，签署了一个关于深入选举、司法和执法改革的亲欧洲政策纲领。

他们已同意组建一个过渡多党政府推进改革 - 如果他们在议会中有足够席位 - 然后再进行新选举。

坐落在高加索山脉和黑海之间的格鲁吉亚曾被认为是前苏联国家中民主的罕见例子。

但在这个拥有约400万人口的国家，选举经常引发大规模抗议。

由美国民调机构Edison Research在选举前不久进行的一项民意调查显示，34%的决定选民将投票给“格鲁吉亚之梦”，而四个反对派联盟将获得53%的选票。

预计没有其他党派能够清除五分之一选举门槛，以获得150个议会席位。

但选举结果仍然未定，因为超过四分之一的受访者告诉民意调查机构，他们要么没有做出决定，要么拒绝命名自己所支持的政治力量。

选举将于格林威治标准时间0400开始，1600结束，最后将发布选举结果。

这次选举将采用比例党派名单制度，将得到欧洲安全与合作组织的国际观察员监督。

The ruling party has been accused of democratic backsliding and moving towards Moscow - Copyright AFP Giorgi ARJEVANIDZE

Irakli METREVELI

Georgians go to the polls on Saturday in watershed elections widely seen as decisive for the fate of the country’s fledgling democracy and European aspirations.

The parliamentary elections pit an unprecedented union of pro-Western opposition forces against a ruling party accused of democratic backsliding and shifting towards Russia.

Brussels has warned that the vote will determine European Union candidate Tbilisi’s chances of joining the bloc.

Opinion polls indicate opposition parties could get enough votes to form a coalition government to supplant the ruling Georgian Dream party, controlled by powerful billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili.

“Georgia’s traditionally fractured opposition forces have managed to forge an unprecedented united front against Georgian Dream,” said analyst Gela Vasadze at Georgia’s Strategic Analysis Centre.

“But if the ruling party attempts to stay in power regardless of the election outcome, then there is the risk of post-electoral turmoil.”

Georgian Dream says it wants to win a supermajority which will allow it to pass a constitutional ban on all major opposition parties.

In power since 2012, the party initially pursued a liberal pro-Western policy agenda. But over the last two years the party has reversed course.

Its campaign has centered on a conspiracy theory about a “global war party” that controls Western institutions and is seeking to drag Georgia into the Russia-Ukraine war.

In a country still scarred by Russia’s 2008 invasion, the party has offered voters bogeyman stories about an imminent threat of war, which only Georgian Dream could prevent.

In a recent TV interview, Ivanishvili painted a grotesque image of the West where “orgies are taking place right in the streets”.

– ‘Crucial test’ –

On Wednesday, Georgian Dream bussed tens of thousands of people from across the country to a campaign rally in Tbilisi where Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze vowed to lead Georgia towards EU membership.

At the same time, he accused EU leaders of “injustice, the rejection of Christian dogmas, LGBT propaganda, and disrespect for others’ sovereignty.”

Last Sunday, tens of thousands of Georgians staged a pro-Europe rally in the capital.

Georgian Dream’s passage of a controversial “foreign influence” law this spring, targeting civil society, sparked weeks of mass street protests and was criticized as a Kremlin-style measure to silence dissent.

The move prompted Brussels to freeze Georgia’s EU accession process, while Washington imposed sanctions on dozens of Georgian officials.

Earlier this month, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell cautioned that Georgian Dream’s actions “signal a shift towards authoritarianism”.

He branded the upcoming polls “a crucial test for democracy in Georgia and its European Union path”.

The Kremlin on Friday blasted “unprecedented attempts at Western interference” in the vote, accusing it of “trying to twist Tbilisi’s hand” and “dictate terms”.

Kobakhidze has said that ties with the West will normalize once the Ukraine war ends.

– Undecided voters –

The latest polls show that the opposition is poised to garner enough ballots to take power.

The potential coalition grouping includes Georgia’s main opposition force, jailed ex-president Mikheil Saakashvili’s United National Movement (UNM) and Akhali, a recently formed party headed by former UNM leaders.

Along with several smaller parties, they have signed up to a pro-European policy platform outlining far-reaching electoral, judicial and law enforcement reforms.

They have agreed to form an interim multi-party government to advance the reforms — if they command enough seats in parliament — before calling fresh elections.

Nestled between the Caucasus Mountains and the Black Sea, Georgia was once considered a rare example of a democracy among ex-Soviet nations.

But elections in the country of some four million regularly spark mass protests.

A poll conducted by US pollster Edison Research shortly before the elections showed 34 percent of decided voters would cast their ballots for Georgian Dream, while the four opposition alliances combined are set to garner 53 percent of the vote.

No other party is expected to clear the five-percent electoral threshold needed to secure seats in the 150-member legislature.

But the outcome of the vote is far from a foregone conclusion, as more than a quarter of respondents told the pollster they were either undecided or refused to name their preferred political force.

Voting will begin at 0400 GMT and end at 1600 GMT, with exit polls set to be released on closing.

The elections, held under a proportional party list system, will be monitored by international observers from the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe.