新湖畔网 （随信APP) | 美国债券收益率飙升，华裔交易员难以应对华尔街损失

随着交易商们降低他们的降息预期，美元已经在其他货币中表现强势 - 版权 AFP KAREN BLEIER

周四，亚洲市场表现不一，紧随华尔街的急剧下跌，美国国债收益率的激增导致投资者减少了对降息的预期。

由于美国总统选举被视为不到两周的时间里谁来胜出仍然难以预测，交易商们在交易市场上存在很多不确定性，尽管观察人士称交易员们正在关注唐纳德·特朗普的胜选以及可能再次引发通胀的政策。

随着一连串强劲的经济数据以及联邦储备委员会官员支持谨慎推进货币政策的言论，降息的预期已经被削减。

交易商上个月曾对央行会在11月会议上跟进上个月50个基点的降息举措，并在12月进行一次较小幅度的降息操作感到有信心。

但随着美国国债收益率从9月的3.73％上升至4.24％，这些预期已经减弱。

观察人士表示，人们担心特朗普击败民主党对手卡玛拉·哈里斯可能会推出减税政策，加剧贸易关税并推动更多的解禁行为。

这助推了所谓的特朗普贸易，投资者争相摆好姿势以准备迎接此类可能性。

澳大利亚国民银行的Rodrigo Catril表示，市场情绪受到“收益率上涨和联储降息预期的抵制”的影响。

他补充说：“坚实的经济势头以及联储传递出强调进一步政策宽松的渐进和审慎方式的信息正在让市场感到紧张。”

“再加上即将到来的美国选举以及伴随的不确定性（更高还是更低的税收？, 更多还是更少的监管? 新的贸易战？），拿一部分筹码是有道理的。”

在华尔街，三大指数收盘大跌，纳斯达克指数跌超过1%。

香港领跌亚洲，下跌逾1%，而上海、首尔、台北和马尼拉也下跌。

东京、悉尼、首尔和惠灵顿上涨。

降息预期的下降推动美元对其他货币走强，使得其兑日元创下近三个月的高点，对英镑的汇率达到两个半月的高点。

黄金延续周三的下跌趋势，因为债券提供比这种不提供利息的贵金属更好的回报。

石油价格上涨超过1%，收复了前一天的下跌，交易员试图评估需求前景以及中东危机，担心以色列计划因本月伊朗的导弹袭击而进行报复。

– 0230 GMT 前的主要数据 –

东京 - 日经225指数：涨0.1%，报38,154.25（休市）

香港 - 恒生指数：跌1.4%，报20,476.07

上海 - 综合指数：跌0.7%，报3,278.76

欧元/美元：跌至1.0782美元，比周三的1.0787美元下跌

英镑/美元：跌至1.2921美元，比1.2929美元下跌

美元/日元：涨至152.66日元，比152.65日元上升

欧元/英镑：涨至83.45便士，比83.41便士上升

西德克萨斯原油：跌1.2%，报每桶71.65美元

布伦特北海原油：跌1.1%，报每桶75.79美元

纽约 - 道琼斯指数：跌1.0%，报42,514.95（收盘）

伦敦 - 富时100指数：跌0.6%，报8,258.64（收盘）

The dollar has rallied against its peers as traders scale back their rate cut expectations - Copyright AFP KAREN BLEIER

Asian markets were mixed Thursday following steep losses on Wall Street as a spike in US Treasury yields led investors to scale back their expectations on interest rate cuts.

With the US presidential election still seen as a coin toss less than two weeks out, there was plenty of uncertainty on trading floors, though observers said dealers were eyeing a win for Donald Trump and policies that could stoke inflation again.

That, along with a strong run of economic data and remarks from Federal Reserve officials backing a cautious approach to easing monetary policy, has seen expectations for rate cuts whittled back.

Traders had last month been confident the central bank would follow up last month’s bumper 50-basis-point cut with another at its November meeting and a smaller one in December.

But those expectations have diminished as Treasury yields push higher to 4.24 percent compared with 3.73 percent in September.

Observers said there is concern that a win for Trump over Democratic rival Kamala Harris could see him introduce tax cuts, ramp up trade tariffs and push for more deregulation.

This has fuelled the so-called Trump trade in which investors jockey for positions to prepare for such an eventuality.

Sentiment has been “weighed down by the move up in yields and push back on Fed rate cut expectations,” said National Australia Bank’s Rodrigo Catril.

“Solid economic momentum as well as Fed messaging emphasising a gradual and deliberate approach to further policy easing is making the market nervous,” he added.

“Then once you add the upcoming US election alongside its associated uncertainty (higher or lower taxes?, more or less regulation?, new trade war?), taking some chips off the table makes sense.”

All three main indexes on Wall Street finished well down, with the Nasdaq losing more than one percent.

Hong Kong led the retreat in Asia by similarly shedding more than one percent, while Shanghai, Seoul, Taipei and Manila were also lower.

Tokyo, Sydney, Seoul and Wellington rose.

The drop in rate cut expectations has pushed the dollar up against its peers, bringing it to a near three-month high against the yen and a two-and-a-half-month high against sterling.

Gold extended Wednesday’s drop from a record high as bonds offer better returns than the precious metal, which does not provide interest.

And oil prices rose more than one percent, clawing back the previous day’s drop as dealers try to assess the demand outlook and the crisis in the Middle East amid fears about Israel’s plans to retaliate against Iran for this month’s missile attack.

– Key figures around 0230 GMT –

Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 0.1 percent at 38,154.25 (break)

Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 1.4 percent at 20,476.07

Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 0.7 percent at 3,278.76

Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0782 from $1.0787 on Wednesday

Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2921 from $1.2929

Dollar/yen: UP at 152.66 yen from 152.65 yen

Euro/pound: UP at 83.45 pence from 83.41 pence

West Texas Intermediate: DOWN 1.2 percent at $71.65 per barrel

Brent North Sea Crude: DOWN 1.1 percent at $75.79 per barrel

New York – Dow: DOWN 1.0 percent at 42,514.95 (close)

London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.6 percent at 8,258.64 (close)